Abstract

DE MEDEIROS ROSA, Chaiane; FORTUNATO TEIXEIRA DOS SANTOS, Fabiano  and  ANGELO MILANI, Eder. The prediction of graduation and dropout in a public university from a logistic model. Educação. Santa Maria [online]. 2021, vol.46, e43159.  Epub Mar 18, 2023. ISSN 1984-6444.  https://doi.org/10.5902/1984644443159.

The theme of this study is the terminative courses of higher education, which are dropout and graduation. With this in mind, the objective is to build predictive logistic models of these two outcomes in relation to students who entered the Federal University of Goiás in 2010, in courses in classroom mode, who were followed for a period of eight years. To this end, consultation was made with microdata from the Brazilian Higher Education Census, from 2010 to 2017, published by the National Institute of Educational Studies and Research "Anísio Teixeira". In order to understand these two phenomena - graduation and dropout - the statistical technique of logistic regression was used and, in addition, bibliographic research was carried out, in consultation with authors who support the technique. As a result, it was found that the statistical technique allows the identification of variables that are risk or protective factors for graduation and dropout; compare categories of the same characteristic using the odds ratio; as well as assessing the likelihood of any student graduating or dropping out. It is, therefore, a fundamental tool for decision-making by educational managers.

Keywords : High education; Evasion; Graduation.

        · abstract in Portuguese     · text in Portuguese     · Portuguese ( pdf )