Resumo

AVENA, Cláudio Pondé. Demanda por ensino superior: o caso da Universidade Federal da Bahia. Est. Aval. Educ. [online]. 2004, n.29, pp.111-136. ISSN 0103-6831.

This paper presents an innovative methodology for estimating demand for education. In addition, it estimates, with cross-sectional data, the aggregate demand for the fields of study  offered at UFBa. The data used are from the Vestibular (entrance examination) database for the years 1993 through 2001 (except for the years 1996, 1999 and 2000). The study develops estimation models for one’s forgone and lifetime earnings. The latter can be understood as the stock of higher educated human capital in the Metropolitan Region of Salvador. The statistical models show a very high explanation power, especially those for the lifetime earnings which account for over 80% of the variability of the demand. This demonstrates that enrollments are a good proxy for human capital stock, as is generally assumed in the growth accounting literature. Moreover, the paper estimates the elasticities of demand and the marginal rate of substitution between forgone and lifetime earnings.

Palavras-chave : Economics Of Education; Education And Work; Demand For Higher Education; Human Capital.

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