Resumo

TAVARES JUNIOR, Fernando; FARIA, Victor Basílio  e  LIMA, Marcos Alves de. Indicadores de fluxo escolar e políticas educacionais: avaliação das últimas décadas. Est. Aval. Educ. [online]. 2012, vol.23, n.52, pp.48-67. ISSN 0103-6831.

The debate around official indicators of school performance (student flow) in Brazil goes back to the 1940s. The Profluxo (FLETCHER, RIBEIRO, 1989) was proposed as a mathematical model to improve the estimation of these rates and showed that the biggest problem was not dropout, as was previously believed, but high repetition rates. Contemporary demands motivated improvements toward parsimony, an adjustment to empirical data and an application in the assessment of educational policies. The Profluxo, generated the Profluxoa, in a single equation of three parameters (instead of a double equation with four parameters). It was observed that the new model improves data modelling and allows for a better interpretation of analyses of policies through advances in the analysis of age ranges and in the properties of the parameters. It was observed that Brazilian education, in recent decades, has improved access, maintained lower dropout, and repetition rates have decreased substantially, but much remains to be done.

Palavras-chave : Social Inequality; Student Achievement; Student Repetition; Student Dropout.

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