Resumo

SILVA, Glauco Peres da. Análise de evasão no ensino superior: uma proposta de diagnóstico de seus determinantes. Avaliação (Campinas) [online]. 2013, vol.18, n.02, pp.311-334. ISSN 1414-4077.

Attrition in Brazilian higher education programs is little studied by scholars. Existent research can be divided in two groups: the first one tries to understand attrition from a systemic perspective (LEON; MENEZES-FILHO, 2002; SILVA FILHO et al, 2007); while the second one verifies its incidence in public universities (CUNHA et al, 2001; ANDRIOLA et al, 2006). Moreover, methodological issues prohibit generalizing results and applying them to specific situations. The present paper attempts to move forward on the necessity to reduce attrition rates in a traditional private university by using its student data base. This procedure makes the methodology replicable at low cost. The objective is to verify what covariates have impact on attrition. Data range from 2006 to 2009. A duration model was applied and the results show that failing a course, tuition raises, financial debts, sex and greater age increase drop-out chances. Meanwhile, course period, more time to study, intermediate grades and Prouni scholarship reduce attrition. All these aspects must be seen as influences on the drop-out decision, yet not as its cause. However, this information provides the means to stipulate a set of strategies intending to reduce attrition rates.

Palavras-chave : Drop Out; Graduate; Private Institution; Duration.

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