2.1 Prigogine and Stengers contribution: dissipative structures and bifurcations

The dissipative structures allow order to emerge from chaos, from entropic movements, through the entrance of the system in one of the possible bifurcations open to the future² . In the succession of bifurcations, deterministic zones alternate (between bifurcations) with points of probabilistic behavior, the bifurcation points; in these bifurcations, there are generally many possibilities open to the system. The appearance of the new structures is rooted in the energy-dissipating structures. This emergency implies time in a defined direction, that is, the activity of dissipative structures is defined as history and not just as a balance of energies. The result is a breakdown of determinism, even on the macroscopic scale ( ^{PRIGOGINE; STENGERS, 1979} ).

The multiple possibilities open to the system cannot be reduced to a single scheme:

The system can never be explained based on the simplicity of a single time path: it became complex, as it is constituted by a plurality of times in which past, present and future are interwoven. Any state of the system is not something that can be deduced, because others were also possible. We need to describe the path that constitutes the system’s past, enumerate the bifurcations crossed and the fluctuations that decided the real history, among all possible ones ( ^{PRIGOGINE; STENGERS, 1997} , p. 124).

Bifurcation is the most important characteristic of complex systems, “it is the critical point through which a new state becomes possible in nature” ( ^{PRIGOGINE; STENGERS, 1979} , p. 122). It arises from two moments: disordered movements due to forces that cause a state of imbalance in the system; and the creation of dissipative structures of the energy that causes the emergence of an order out of chaos, by entering the system in one of the possible ways to the future. This leads to the idea that “the bifurcation introduces history into physics”: the logic of irreversible processes of systems far from equilibrium is a narrative logic that formerly seemed to be reserved for sciences dealing with biological, social, and cultural phenomena” ( ^{PRIGOGINE 1980} , p. 106).

As an event on the edge of chaos, the Covid-19 pandemic forced us to build new structures, new processes and behavior patterns, a problem that incited us to extend Prigogine’s reasoning to social phenomena observed in the Covid-19 pandemic. To make an intelligent choice in the bifurcation, it is essential to know the problem’s complexity and to base the choice on a rigorous analysis. The awareness of the limits leads us a new light: the uncertainties are primarily a challenge for a new reasoning model, able to give orientation for more fruitful changes (YASSIF; O’PREY; ISAAC, 2021).

2.2 The Complex Motivation Model (MCA)

The concept of dissipative structures and bifurcations is particularly suitable to explain and answer the challenges imposed by Covid-19’s impact on human societies. A motivational model is suitable to understand the individual and group behavior to face these challenges, since adaptive behaviors are motivated behaviors. Motivation models have been widely used to study, predict, and influence behavioral choices, especially in work (KENRICK et al ., 2010), but also in social contexts ( ^{Dunning, 2011} ). MCA, a model which has been used in several motivation studies (PESTANA, PARREIRA; MOUTINHO, 2019), was chosen to interpret the behavioral results of our research. This model views motivation as a regulating process, based on two components: an energetic component, the emotional intensity, felt by the subject, when facing an object or situation; and an informational component, the perception of the usefulness of each alternative behavior, in that context and time. Emotions and cognition are the mediators of the subject-environment relationship; emotions, the energetic dimension of behavior (DAMÁSIO, 2008), make the bridge between the subject and the context, marking emotionally the behavior alternatives ( Figure 1 ).

Source: Pestana, Parreira and Moutinho (2019)

Figure 1 The motivational process mediating the relationship subject-environment 

Emotions stimulate action as motivations ( ^{LANG, 2010} ), by the interplay of push factors (intrinsic to the subject) and pull factors (extrinsic, in the context), as shown in Figures 2 and 3 .

Source: ^{Parreira (2021)}

Figure 2 The MCA Model 

Source: The authors (2023)

Figure 3 Covid Impact in the light of the Interpretative MCA Model 

3.1 The sample

A total of 804 university students from two public universities, in Lisbon, Portugal (24.9%), and São Paulo, Brazil (75.1%), participate in live online learning ( Table 1 and Table 2 ). The different dimensions in the sample try to be proportional to those existing in the chosen Human Resource Course in both countries. The majority are women (68.8%), and there is a majority of 62% of students just studying in Portugal, while in Brazil there is an equal proportion of students who only study and those who also work. Regarding working students (Portugal = 76; Brazil = 304), most work with contract, while freelancers represent 14.0% students in Portugal and 17.9% in Brazil.

4.1 Direct impact of the pandemic on students and on their working life

Brazilian students feel significantly more worried, more threatened, having more daily basis constraints, and agree more with an imposed isolation period by the government than Portuguese students. These differences are statistically significant (simultaneous t tests, p < 0.001), with medium intensity between countries (0.5<=|Cohens’d| <=0.7), except for daily restrictions (Total Mean 5.2: Brazil Mean = 5.0; Portugal Mean = 5.8), and time spent following the news (Total Mean 5.0: Brazil Mean = 5.1, Portugal Mean = 4.7) where the differences, although relevant, are very small (0.2<= |Cohens’d |<=0.3).

Table 1 shows the significant direct effects of the pandemic on Higher Education students by country, gender and working life.

Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) was used to perform the statistical analysis of the direct effect of the pandemic according to gender and working lives in both countries. It revealed that that there are significant differences by gender (Wilks Lambda = Hotellings’s Trace = 27.856, p < 0.001, partial eta squared 0.132, observed power 0.991) and by work life (Wilks Lambda = Hotellings’s Trace = 3.059, p =0.02, partial eta squared 0.015, observed power 0.964). Although the negative effects are more pronounced among Brazilians, remarkably both countries show the same profile: the same proportion of students’ positive and negative perceptions and behaviors.

Table 2 shows that employees mainly work from home (64.3%), followed at great distance by those who had to go on mandatory vacations (16.1%) and who have suffered job suspention (9.8%). Students with a liberal profession also experienced a direct negative impact on the organisation of their lives: reduction in the demand for work (52.1%), followed by the necessity to train and work at the same time (27.4%) and by previous training to deal with the new challenges (4.1%).

The threatening energy released by Covid-19 led to the idea that the dangerous contagion could not be controlled by existing structures and processes, forcing society to enter the path of chaos, not being able to create new, more effective structures to deal with the imposed challenges.

As for significant motivational components: Psychological impacts were the strongest, the most salient influence on intrinsic motivators coming from fear associated with the pandemic. These emotions led to a perception of reality tinged by these feelings, reducing the sense of self-efficacy: 59.0% of Portuguese students and 78.8% of Brazilian students ranged from feeling quite to extremely threatened by the pandemic. This darker perception of reality became a barrier to adaptive efforts, especially innovative ones, motivating, on the contrary, a conformist attitude and behavior, as predicted by the MCA Model.

The hypothesis H1 is directly linked to the results presented in Table 1 and ² : To see if they support or disprove it, we must know how large and deep the behavioral changes were enforced by the pandemic, as they appear in the results:

4.2 Students’ condition at the start of coping measures

Most of students entered remote Education, which forced them to make extensive use of digital tools for accessing information.

4.3.1 Adaptive behavior in the field of study

These results show that the experience of sudents with online educational processes did not create barriers to positive adaptive responses to the new situation: most students evaluated the academic activities undertaken during the pandemic in a positive way; students showed a level of self-confidence, self-organisation and adaptability, which ensures the maintenance of innovative educational environments, namely those leading to self-regulated learning behavior. Students’ confidence is always present in responses, even if the evaluations are affected by the impact of Covid-19 on work:

4.3.2 Organisation of daily behavior

Students who could organize their home study routines reach 22.4% in Portugal and 23.8% in Brazil:

Nevertheless, many students in both countries do not have a computer and internet at home (Portugal 33.0%, Brazil 35.6%) neither sufficient privacy to work (Portugal 22.0%, Brazil 20.2%), but these weaknesses did not hinder their selfconfidence and the adoption of an effective adaptive behavior.

4.3.3 Students clustering: three different evaluations of Covid-19 challenges

This part was designed to find out whether students can be clustered based on their evaluation of online classes, an interesting piece of information for Higher Education institutions planning. We applied a fixed three-cluster model to verify if they were sufficiently different in terms of the ratings that formed the evaluative question. The three clusters allow us to distinguish students with high ratings, medium ratings, and low ratings on the majority of itens ( Table 4 ).

Cluster II (“Positive Thinkers”) is the largest one and contains 49.5% of the students. Their classifications in “opportunities, discipline and confidence” are the second highest of the table:

When thinking about Covid-19, they feel moderately threatened as the other clusters, but are less worried than the others; the isolation period had a more negative impact on their pchychological health than of those in cluster 1 (Enthusiastics); however, like “Enthusiasts”, they spend the least time following news about Covid-19 and they found less difficulties in getting what they need on a daily basis than those in cluster 3 (Doubters). About the “perception of governments and information on Covid-19”, they have sought to protect themselves from contamination by taking distance from others; they agree with the punishment of those who do not comply with it and think that governments should invest large resources in research on vaccines or drugs against Covid-19.

Cluster I (“Enthusiasts”) is the second larger cluster with 44.3% of students. In “opportunities, discipline and confidence”, they have the highest rank. They are the most disciplined group to study at home. Their desire to return to face-to-face classes is lower than observed in the other clusters. When they think about Covid-19, they feel a moderate degree of threat as the remaining clusters. The period of isolation had the least negative impact on their psychological health, as well as on the satisfaction of their daily needs. They are the ones who have most sought to distance themselves socially from others to protect from Covid-19; and spent the least time following news about Covid-19 social media (together with “Positive thinkers”).

Cluster III (“Doubters”) is the smallest cluster (6.6%) and includes students who do not see opportunities nor benefits offered by the period of confinement. In the items of “opportunity, confidence, and discipline”, their means (between 2.88 and 3.92) are well below the median value of the scale; they are the less disciplined to study at home, have the greatest psychological impacts and difficulties in obtaining what they need on a daily basis, and spend the most time following the news about Covid-19.

Clusters are analysed according to the sociodemographic characteristics of the students. Regarding gender, there are no statistically significant differences among clusters. Enthusiasts are mainly among those who have actual experience in using online platforms.

The clusters identified confirm that the students’ evaluations of the lessons are a complex process with different explanations based on discipline of study, perceived opportunities, confidence, time spent following the news, psychological effects, daily difficulties, and reactions to governmental directives. These results show that the students are a heterogeneous segment either in Portugal or in Brazil ( Table 4 ).

Our results show that the initial experience of sudents and educational institutions with online educational processes allowed most of them to adapt to the new situation (they did not create barriers to positive adaptive responses); most students evaluated the academic activities undertaken during the pandemic in a positive way; students showed a level of self-confidence, self-organisation and adaptability which ensures the maintenance of innovative educational environments, namely viewed as fostering a self-regulated learning behavior.

But “although the student can easily use the technology, he continues to have difficulty to understand the world where he lives” (SOARES et al ., 2020, p. 97), depending upon his teachers to give sense and significance to that world. And the authors highlight “the emergence of a new strategy in the relationships between teachers and students, guided by the understanding of the other as a party directly involved in the educational act” giving a new meaning to the teacher’s authority: the competence to behave as an advisor teacher (SOARES et al ., 2020, p. 100). Therefore, we can admit that the changes forced by the Covid-19 pandemic will quite probably lead to innovative and more effective educational structures and processes, supporting H2.