<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0103-6831</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Estudos em Avaliação Educacional]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Est. Aval. Educ.]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0103-6831</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Fundação Carlos Chagas]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0103-68312016000300690</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.18222/eae.v27i66.3956</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="pt"><![CDATA[As metas escolares do Ideb: uma proposta alternativa de cálculo]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[las metas escolares del Ideb: una propuesta alternativa de cálculo]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Ideb school goals: an alternative calculation proposal]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Pontes]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Luís Antônio Fajardo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Soares]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Tufi Machado]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora Centro de Políticas Públicas e Avaliação da Educação ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Juiz de Fora Minas Gerais]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora Departamento de Estatística e do Programa de Pós-Graduação em Educação Unidade de Pesquisa do Centro de Políticas Públicas e Avaliação da Educação]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Juiz de Fora Minas Gerais]]></addr-line>
<country>Brazil</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2016</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>27</volume>
<numero>66</numero>
<fpage>690</fpage>
<lpage>715</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://educa.fcc.org.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0103-68312016000300690&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://educa.fcc.org.br/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0103-68312016000300690&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://educa.fcc.org.br/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0103-68312016000300690&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="pt"><p><![CDATA[Resumo Este artigo tem como principal objetivo propor uma nova metodologia de c&#225;lculo das metas do &#205;ndice de Desenvolvimento da Educa&#231;&#227;o B&#225;sica (Ideb). A principal justificativa para isso &#233; a constata&#231;&#227;o de que as metas do Ideb, como s&#227;o oficialmente calculadas, levam em conta somente dados de fluxo e desempenho conforme aferidos em um &#250;nico ano (2005), segundo os dados do Censo Escolar e da Prova Brasil. Al&#233;m disso, tampouco se considera explicitamente, nesse c&#225;lculo oficial, o &#237;ndice socioecon&#244;mico (ISE) m&#233;dio das escolas, algo que, n&#227;o obstante, costuma encontrar-se fortemente associado ao desempenho escolar. Dessa forma, o presente artigo analisa uma s&#233;rie hist&#243;rica de dados das escolas p&#250;blicas do estado de Minas Gerais para ent&#227;o ajustar-lhe um modelo longitudinal linear hier&#225;rquico que calcula as metas do Ideb de modo semelhante, por&#233;m n&#227;o exatamente igual &#224; forma oficialmente utilizada, e que leva em conta os problemas aqui apresentados.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen El principal objetivo de este art&#237;culo es el de proponer una nueva m&#233;todolog&#237;a de c&#225;lculo de las metas del &#205;ndice de Desenvolvimento da Educa&#231;&#227;o B&#225;sica (Ideb). La principal justificativa para ello es la constataci&#243;n de que las metas del Ideb, del modo como son oficialmente calculadas, tan solo tienen en cuenta datos de flujo y desempe&#241;o verificados en un &#250;nico a&#241;o (2005), seg&#250;n los datos del Censo Escolar y de la Prova Brasil. Por otra parte, tampoco se considera expl&#237;citamente en este c&#225;lculo oficial el &#237;ndice socioecon&#243;mico (ISE) m&#233;dio de las escuelas, algo que, no obstante, suele asociarse fuertemente al desempe&#241;o escolar. De esta forma, el presente art&#237;culo analiza una serie hist&#243;rica de datos de las escuelas p&#250;blicas del estado de Minas Gerais para entonces ajustarle un modelo longitudinal lineal jer&#225;rquico que calcula las metas del Ideb de modo similar, pero no exactamente igual a la forma oficialmente utilizada, teniendo en cuenta los problemas aqu&#237; presentados.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract This paper aims is to propose a new methodology to calculat&#233; the &#205;ndice de Desenvolvimento da Educa&#231;&#227;o B&#225;sica (Ideb) [Basic Education Development Index] targets. The main reason for this is the realization that the Ideb targets, as they have been officially calculat&#233;d, take into account only students' approval data and performance assessed for a single year (2005) and based on data of the Brazilian School Census and the Prova Brasil. Besides that, the official calculation also fails to explicitly include the mean school socioeconomic status, which is nonetheless strongly correlat&#233;d with school performance. Therefore, this paper analyzes a historical series of data of Minas Gerais stat&#233; public schools in order to adjust it to a longitudinal hierarchical linear model which calculat&#233;s the Ideb targets in a way that is similar, though not exactly the same to the one officially used, and that also takes into account the problems presented in the study.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Indicadores Educacionais]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Ideb]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Modelos Longitudinais Lineares Hierárquicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="pt"><![CDATA[Avaliação da Educação]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Indicadores Educacionales]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Ideb]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Modelos Longitudinales Lineales Jerárquicos]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Evaluación De La Educación]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Educational Indicators]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Ideb]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Longitudinal Hierarchical Linear Models]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Educational Evaluation]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
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